Last week: 12-4 (7-4-5 against the spread)
Season record: 161-94-1 (114-112-30 against the spread)
2007 season: 174-82 (118-105-33 against the spread)
Falcons @ Cardinals
Atlanta has all the momentum and is probably the more confident team, but the Cards were 6-2 at home and have the more experienced quarterback.
But here’s the thing: when is the last time the Falcons outplayed a good team? New England beat them by 40 points two weeks ago, Minnesota by 21 the week before, and Philadelphia by 28 two weeks prior to that.
The Cards won only three of their last seven games, and those wins came against teams with a combined final record of 6-26. They haven’t defeated a semi-quality team at home since they edged Dallas way back in week 6.
As long as Matt Ryan doesn’t make any big mistakes, the Falcons, who’ve won five of their last six games (including road victories in Minnesota and San Diego), shouldn’t have any problems.
Atlanta 27, Arizona 20
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Colts @ Chargers
LaDainian Tomlinson’s injury situation is obviously huge. With him, the Chargers should be a borderline favourite; without him, San Diego should be at least a seven-point dog.
If LT finds himself on the sideline for the second straight post-season game, he can expect to get fried by Chargers fans. Who knows if that will inspire him to get into the lineup tonight, but then you have to wonder how effective he’ll be.
San Diego is red hot, and it always plays Indianapolis well, but the Colts are even hotter, and have fewer injuries to worry about. With Antonio Gates (ankle) and Tomlinson (groin) not at 100 percent, it’s hard to pick the Bolts at this point.
Indianapolis 23, San Diego 20
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Ravens @ Dolphins
Without a doubt the toughest call of the weekend. Overall, the Ravens have more playoff and big-game experience, but at quarterback, Miami’s Chad Pennington has been there, while Baltimore’s Joe Flacco has never played on this grand a stage.
Then of course you have the fact that the game’s in South Florida, which we’re barely considering here. Why? Because the Ravens were 5-3 on the road this year, while the Dolphins were only 5-3 at home.
Sure, the Dolphins lost to Baltimore in week 7, but they’ve only lost one game since then, and Pennington has been one of the best signal callers in the league. We’ll go with the home team, but we’re not feeling too confident.
Miami 24, Baltimore 23
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Eagles @ Vikings
How confident are Vikings fans as they prepare for their team’s first home playoff game since the days of Chris Carter and co.? Well, the game looks as though it’ll be blacked out because it has yet to sell out.
The Vikings haven’t been the same the last couple weeks without defensive tackle Pat Williams, whose status is still up in the air for Sunday’s game. Throw in the fact that starting defensive end Ray Edwards is out with a knee injury, and the Vikes’ d-line could have trouble stopping the run and/or putting pressure on Donovan McNabb.
And that could be the biggest difference. Only three teams in the league had more sacks than Minnesota this year. And we all know how McNabb can get flustered in games like these. If he has time to work, the Eagles could have a big day.
If anyone’s going to get flustered, it’ll be Minnesota’s quarterback, Tarvaris Jackson. Sure, Jackson has played well since overtaking Gus Frerotte under centre, but he hasn’t gone up against a defence like Jim Johnson’s.
Ultimately, it comes down to two things: experience and momentum. Philly has the edge in both categories.
Philadelphia 30, Minnesota 17